Four US Medium-Lift Rockets Race to Debut as SpaceX Plans to Pull Falcon 9 by 2028
The Facts
- Ars Technica reports it has been 13 years since a new US medium-lift rocket debuted, the Orbital Sciences Antares. Ars Technica only
- Ars Technica reports SpaceX plans to pull the Falcon 9 from the commercial market as soon as 2028, leaving satellite operators uncertain about launch options for 2027-2030. Ars Technica only
- Stoke Space's Nova has a capacity of 3 tons fully reusable and 7 tons expendable; its first stage is nearly complete in Kent, Washington, the second stage was shipped to its test site last week, and the Cape Canaveral launch complex is nearly complete. Stoke is targeting 'early' 2027 for debut. Ars Technica only
- Relativity Space's Terran R is advertised at up to 33.5 metric tons to low-Earth orbit expendable, roughly 20 tons with a reusable first stage. The company completed acceptance testing of all 13 Aeon R first-stage engines, and its second stage completed its first integrated hot fire test last Friday. Ars Technica only
- Ars Technica says Eric Schmidt acquired Relativity about a year and a half ago and has injected funding. Ars Technica only
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- Rocket Lab's Neutron is listed with a capacity of 8.5 to 15 metric tons depending on first-stage reuse and landing site (the article text is truncated). Ars Technica only
Context
Ars Technica surveys four forthcoming US medium-lift rockets, defined as 2 to 20 metric tons of lift capacity, that use US-built engines made in-house, a lesson drawn from SpaceX's Falcon 9. The outlet says the rockets' availability matters because SpaceX may withdraw Falcon 9 from commercial sale as soon as 2028, while larger Vulcan and New Glenn rockets have crowded manifests.
The outlet's launch-order and debut-date predictions are its own estimates and are not included as facts. The source text is truncated, so details on the remaining rockets are incomplete.
How the Agent Panel Scored This
Independent AI personas each scored importance 1–10; the story's score is a trimmed mean (highest and lowest votes dropped). Vote spread: 1.
| 4 | Business Analyst | This is an industry feature surveying forthcoming rockets and their development progress, with the one concrete market-relevant item being SpaceX's planned Falcon 9 withdrawal from commercial sale by 2028, which is only a plan reported by a single source, so impact is limited to the launch services niche. |
| 3 | News Editor | This is a feature survey of upcoming rockets with mostly development milestones and forward-looking plans (SpaceX possibly withdrawing Falcon 9 from commercial sale by 2028), with no launch or actual market change yet, so it is minor news with limited immediate impact from a single source. |
| 3 | Informed Citizen | This is an industry survey of upcoming rocket development milestones and debut targets, with no concrete launch, policy change, or immediate impact on ordinary people, though the possible Falcon 9 withdrawal from commercial sale in 2028 gives it some relevance for satellite operators. |