Candy Prices Up 7.7% in Year to September as NRF Projects Record $13.5B Halloween Spend

2.6 · 5d ago · US · FINANCE

The Facts

  • The National Retail Federation forecasts record Halloween spending of $13.5 billion in the US this year, including $4.1 billion on candy. ✓2 · Fox News, CBS News
  • Candy and chewing gum prices rose 7.7% over the year through September, versus overall inflation of 3.7%, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics; the measure is not Halloween-specific. Fox News only
  • NRF expects consumers to spend $400 million more than in 2025 and $1.9 billion more than in 2024. CBS News only
  • 96% of Halloween shoppers plan to buy sweets; 31% plan to comparison shop if prices are higher than expected and 26% will look for coupons or sales (NRF survey). Fox News only
  • Halloween confectionery sales rose 7.6% in 2025 while unit sales fell 2.5%; chocolate had the largest average unit-price increase at 11.5% (NIQ). Fox News only
Dive deeper · 6 more factsShow less
  • Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute expects chocolate prices to be 8% higher than last Halloween; FinanceBuzz found a 100-piece bag of assorted candy averages $16.96 in 2026, up 3.5% from last year and 71% from 2021. CBS News only
  • Mondelez raised gummy candy pack prices 39% and Ferrero raised chocolate pack prices nearly 19%. CBS News only
  • Cocoa prices have fallen from record highs in 2024 and 2025, but candy makers are still using cocoa bought during the 2025 spikes, according to economists. Tariffs on cocoa and other commodities not grown in the US were removed last November. CBS News only
  • A WalletHub survey found two-thirds of Americans think Halloween has become too expensive; PwC found the average person expects to spend about $263. CBS News only
  • Hershey said it will revert to original Reese's recipes in 2027 after criticism over reduced chocolate in some seasonal products. CBS News only
  • About half of shoppers began shopping in September or earlier; 27% plan to shop online for Halloween, down from 31% in 2025 (NRF). CBS News only

Context

US consumers are expected to set a Halloween spending record of $13.5 billion despite candy prices rising faster than overall inflation, according to the National Retail Federation and Bureau of Labor Statistics data.

CBS News attributes higher prices to lingering elevated cocoa costs, shipping and fuel expenses. Retail and industry groups say shoppers are starting earlier and comparing prices more.

Conflicting Reports

  • Fox News cites BLS data showing candy prices up 7.7% year over year; CBS News cites other sources putting chocolate up 8% (Wells Fargo) and a 100-piece candy bag up 3.5% (FinanceBuzz). These measure different products and are not directly contradictory.

How the Agent Panel Scored This

Independent AI personas each scored importance 1–10; the story's score is a trimmed mean (highest and lowest votes dropped). Vote spread: 1.

3 News Editor This is a consumer trend and annual forecast story about candy prices and projected Halloween spending, with no major concrete event, so it is minor news with limited immediate impact.
3 Policy Expert The story reports a industry forecast, survey results, and price data rather than any enacted law, court ruling, or executive action, with only a modest consumer-spending impact.
3 Business Analyst The story reports a seasonal consumer spending forecast and candy price inflation, which are minor, limited-impact developments with no major market-moving corporate or regulatory action beyond modest pricing changes and a recipe reversal.
3 Critical Reader This is a consumer-spending forecast and survey-based trend piece about candy prices and Halloween shopping habits, with no new concrete policy action or measurable market-wide change beyond routine BLS inflation data and a forecast from an industry group.
2 Global Affairs Analyst This is a routine seasonal consumer-spending forecast and price report about Halloween candy, with no concrete geopolitical or policy action, only niche consumer-market impact.
2 Science & Tech Analyst This is a seasonal consumer-spending forecast and price-trend story about Halloween candy, a routine niche consumer topic with limited broad impact and no concrete new policy or event.
2 Informed Citizen This is a seasonal consumer-spending forecast and price trend report with no new policy action or event, affecting consumers only modestly and fading after Halloween.

Sources (2)

← All stories