All 16 Analysts in CNBC Survey Expect BOJ to Hold Rate at 1.25% This Week

3.2 · 5d ago · WORLD · FINANCE

The Facts

  • All 16 respondents in a CNBC survey expect the Bank of Japan to keep its policy rate at 1.25% at the end of its two-day meeting on Friday. CNBC only
  • The BOJ raised rates last month to their highest level in 31 years. CNBC only
  • All respondents expect the BOJ to set the stage for a rate hike in December or January; Credit Agricole's Takuji Aida expects January, when the BOJ releases its quarterly outlook report. CNBC only
  • Japan's core inflation excluding fresh food rose 2.1% year on year in September, the highest this year. CNBC only
  • Japan's inflation-adjusted wages rose 1.5% year on year in August, the eighth consecutive monthly increase. CNBC only
Dive deeper · 4 more factsShow less
  • Thirteen respondents expect a terminal rate of 1.75% to 2% by around mid-2027. CNBC only
  • Nine respondents expect the 10-year JGB yield to be 3% to 3.1% by year-end, from 2.809% currently; seven expect the 30-year yield at 4% to 4.1%, from 3.829% as of Tuesday. CNBC only
  • Nine respondents expect the yen to trade between 157 and 158 per dollar over the next month; three-month forecasts range from 150 to 160. CNBC only
  • The survey was conducted Oct. 14 to 26 among 16 economists and analysts. CNBC only

Context

A CNBC survey of 16 economists and analysts finds unanimous expectation that the Bank of Japan will hold its policy rate at 1.25% at this week's meeting, after last month's hike to a 31-year high.

Respondents expect tightening to resume in December or January, citing rising inflation and wages. Some analysts caution that fragility in the domestic bond market and a lack of clear inflation acceleration could limit consecutive hikes. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama reportedly told lawmakers Japan is on the cusp of sustained wage-driven inflation.

How the Agent Panel Scored This

Independent AI personas each scored importance 1–10; the story's score is a trimmed mean (highest and lowest votes dropped). Vote spread: 1.

4 Business Analyst This is a survey of analyst expectations for a widely anticipated BOJ hold, so the concrete event is a forecast rather than an actual policy action, though the underlying BOJ policy and yield/yen forecasts give it moderate market relevance.
4 News Editor This is a survey of analyst expectations about a widely anticipated BOJ hold, so it reports forecasts rather than a concrete policy action, making it a minor story with limited immediate impact despite the topic's significance.
3 Science & Tech Analyst This is a survey of analyst expectations about a likely BOJ hold, which is a forecast rather than a concrete policy action, so its impact is limited to market participants.
3 Informed Citizen This is a survey of analyst expectations for a widely anticipated BOJ hold, a forecast rather than a concrete new policy action, so its impact on ordinary people is limited and short-lived.
3 Policy Expert This is a forecast survey of economists expecting a central bank hold, which is a non-event in itself, so its impact is limited to market expectations rather than a concrete government or policy action.
3 Critical Reader This is a survey of analyst expectations about a BOJ hold, which is a forecast rather than a concrete policy action, so its impact is limited to market sentiment ahead of a meeting.
3 Global Affairs Analyst This is a survey of analyst expectations about a likely BOJ hold, which is a forecast rather than a concrete policy action, so its impact is limited to market participants.

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