Pending Home Sales Fall 7.3% in September to Record Low as Mortgage Rates Hit 7.6%

5.8 · 11d ago · US · FINANCE

The Facts

  • The National Association of Realtors reported pending home sales fell 7.3% in September from August and 11.3% from a year earlier. CNBC only
  • The pending sales index hit an all-time low in records going back to 2001; Wall Street expected a 0.4% decline. CNBC only
  • The 30-year mortgage rate was about 7.6% at the end of September, according to Mortgage News Daily; one CNBC report says it started the month near 6.8%. CNBC only
  • NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun said market conditions weakened in September due to fast-rising mortgage rates. CNBC only
  • Pending sales fell most in the West (-9.2%) and South (-8.2%). CNBC only
Dive deeper · 6 more factsShow less
  • Housing starts fell 5.2% in September against expectations of a 0.4% decline, and building permits fell 0.2% against a consensus forecast of a 2% gain, per Commerce Department data. ⚠ disputed
  • Single-family permits totaled 845,000, down 4% from August and the lowest since 2023, according to one CNBC report. CNBC only
  • The NAHB October homebuilder sentiment reading was the lowest in 14 years. CNBC only
  • Wholesale final demand goods prices rose 2.6%, the fastest pace in a BLS series dating to December 2009. CNBC only
  • Markets expect the Fed to hold rates steady at its meeting next week, though further hikes are anticipated in coming months. CNBC only
  • Goldman Sachs forecasts 875,000 single-family starts and 3.9 million existing home sales in 2027. CNBC only

Context

September housing data showed sharp weakness as mortgage rates rose. Pending sales reached a record low, while starts and permits fell more than forecast and builder sentiment hit a 14-year low.

The Federal Reserve faces persistent inflation, including rising producer prices, which complicates any policy response to the housing slowdown. Goldman Sachs economist Ronnie Walker expects affordability to weigh on activity in 2027.

Conflicting Reports

  • The two CNBC reports give different housing data figures: one says housing starts fell 5.2% and building permits fell 0.2%; the other says single-family starts fell 4.56% to 859,000 annualized and permits fell 4%. The first separately cites single-family permits of 845,000, down 4%. The reports may measure different series (total vs. single-family).
  • The two CNBC reports differ on the September starting mortgage rate: one says rates were above 7% for most of September; the other says they started the month near 6.8%.

How the Agent Panel Scored This

Independent AI personas each scored importance 1–10; the story's score is a trimmed mean (highest and lowest votes dropped). Vote spread: 2.

7 Business Analyst Record-low pending home sales, a 7.6% mortgage rate, weak starts and permits, and a 14-year low in builder sentiment together signal a significant housing downturn that affects many households and markets, though it is economic data rather than a sudden shock.
6 Science & Tech Analyst A record-low drop in pending home sales, weak starts and permits, and a 14-year-low builder sentiment reading signal a significant housing slowdown affecting many buyers and the broader economy, though it is economic data rather than a discrete breaking event with immediate widespread impact.
6 Critical Reader A record-low pending home sales reading with measurable drops in starts, permits, and builder sentiment is a notable economic data release affecting the housing market, but it reports data rather than a policy action and has moderate rather than immediate broad impact.
6 News Editor The story reports concrete data releases showing record-low pending home sales, falling starts and permits, and a 14-year low in builder sentiment, affecting the large housing market and mortgage borrowers, but it is a sector-specific economic report rather than widespread breaking news.
6 Informed Citizen A record-low pending home sales drop, weak starts and permits, and mortgage rates near 7.6% signal a notable housing slowdown affecting prospective buyers and builders, but it is economic data rather than an immediate shock to most ordinary people.
5 Policy Expert This is an economic data release reporting record-low pending home sales and weak housing starts, which is newsworthy with notable market impact but involves no enacted policy, ruling, or executive action.
5 Global Affairs Analyst A record-low pending home sales reading and sharp housing weakness amid 7.6% mortgage rates is significant economic news, but it is a data release affecting the US housing sector rather than a geopolitical event, so it sits in the moderate-to-significant range.

Sources (2)

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