48% of Surveyed Investors Fear Midterm Stock Impact; S&P 500 Averaged 12.4% in 6 Months After

2.0 · 1d ago · US · FINANCE

The Facts

  • Morgan Stanley Wealth Management's survey of 953 U.S. investors, conducted Oct. 1-23, found 48% are concerned about the Nov. 3 midterms' potential impact on the stock market. CNBC only
  • A Nationwide Retirement Institute survey of 2,029 investors with at least $10,000 in investable assets (Aug. 24-Sept. 11) found 56% feel more anxious because of the elections and 75% believe the results could meaningfully affect their long-term financial plans. CNBC only
  • In midterm years since 1974, the S&P 500 averaged a 5.7% return in the three months after the midterm election, with gains in 11 of 13 years, and a 12.4% average over six months, with gains in all 13 years, per Charles Schwab analysis. CNBC only
  • Janus Henderson's 50-year analysis found higher S&P 500 volatility under split government but similar annualized price returns: 8.73% under unified government vs. 9.24% under divided government. CNBC only
  • Capital Group analysis shows median annualized market volatility since 1970 was nearly 16% in midterm years vs. 13% in other years. CNBC only
Dive deeper · 3 more factsShow less
  • Fidelity's analysis of S&P 500 returns from 1950 through 2023 found average returns of 3.4% in the midterm year and 14.7% in the following year (dividends reinvested). CNBC only
  • Democrats lead Republicans on the generic ballot by about 9 points as of Oct. 28 per FiftyPlusOne, and are narrowly favored to win the Senate per DecisionDeskHQ. CNBC only
  • The president's party has gained House seats in only three midterm elections since 1906, per Schwab's Michael Townsend. CNBC only

Context

Investor surveys show notable anxiety ahead of the Nov. 3 midterm elections, with Republicans currently controlling both chambers of Congress. Polls favor Democrats to win the House and narrowly the Senate, which would end unified government. The new Congress convenes Jan. 3.

Historical data cited by CNBC shows higher volatility in midterm years but, on average, positive S&P 500 returns in the months following midterms. Analysts note past performance does not predict future market behavior.

How the Agent Panel Scored This

Independent AI personas each scored importance 1–10; the story's score is a trimmed mean (highest and lowest votes dropped). Vote spread: 0.

2 News Editor The story reports survey results on investor sentiment and historical market analysis rather than any concrete new event, action, or market-moving change, so its impact is limited to niche financial-planning interest.
2 Business Analyst The story reports investor survey sentiment and historical market statistics about midterm elections, with no new concrete market-moving event, policy action, or corporate action, so its impact is low.
2 Informed Citizen This story reports survey sentiment and historical market analyses rather than any concrete new event, so its impact on ordinary people is limited and short-lived.

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